Does believing you’re the last sane man on the planet make you crazy? ‘Cause if it does, maybe I am.
Will Smith, IROBOT
The Raiders Las Vegas deal might be the worst and most dysfunctional deal in US sports history. I’ve been telling friends for weeks, I’m shocked this is still on the table.
Last off season the late great Raiders social media icon Tim Casto messaged me. “One of ESPN’s analysts said he spoke to an unnamed insider from the Raider’s and Derek Carr broke his hand!! He’ll be out indefinitely and needs surgery!”. It was front page news on ESPN.com. My message back to the “Captain” was to wait until he gets two reliable sources (imagine that?) before he worries. That evening even Derek Carr was kind of freaked out by the fervor when he was the top trend on Twitter in the bay area. Of course he was fine but it served it’s purpose. ESPN was flooded with readers on it’s website and the next day all was forgotten. Welcome to the manipulating media of the 21st century.
I was doing a few radio station interviews talking about the Raiders, and each host had one last question. Where will the Raiders end up. My answer to all 3 to their amazement was Oakland. “The numbers don’t lie guys. All they are talking about is the cost of the stadium. Now you add the relocation fee as well as possible interest payments and other costs that always come up with this type of deal, and the price for Mark Davis goes up; way up”. While fans are being played like fiddles giving “unnamed sources” comments as facts, let’s deal with reality. This deal is so bad, the ONLY way I see the Raiders going to Las Vegas is if the owners; especially Jerry Jones; flat out want them there.
The Mainstream Media With An Epic Fail:
I worked for a fortune 500 company as an administrator at a young age. We were the biggest health organization at the time in the U.S. I’ve done large deals and also have done some for my own small company, so I know about business. I also have asked 3 friends who are big wigs in Silicon Valley and in the medical field financial arena what they thought about this deal. They all said let’s look at the numbers. They all said ugh.
This is where the mainstream media and many of those following this story have failed. DO THE NUMBERS! Instead of being responsible, they leak fake stories or rumors to get a rise out of people and get traffic to their articles and sites. It shocks me that until the last few weeks, few have literally made a spread sheet and looked at the numbers of this deal.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: This Deal Is A Joke:
The people below can do a better job than I, but here is this deal in a nutshell. The stadium will cost 1.9 billion dollars. The Raiders will NOT own it. They also will have to pay 350-500 million dollars in a relocation fee that can be spread out over time. Now thanks to the Department of Transportation’s demands that the Raiders pay for upgrades in highways and roads leading up to the new stadium, there are more added costs. The cost is estimated to be around $900 million. The Raiders will have to pay at least $450 million of that. Oh; and I’m sorry. What about the yearly interest/costs to the loan that the Raiders supposedly have shored up with Bank of America. That’s predicted to be between $40-46 million per year.
I could give you a lot of people, but for now I’ll just give a few that looked at the numbers.
Roger Noll, a Stanford University economics professor has made a few comments on the deal. “The numbers don’t add up and the probability that it could happen isn’t zero, but it is pretty close to zero.”
Another great voice is Zennie Abraham. He broke down the numbers in depth. He has spoken with the likes of Raiders owner Mark Davis, Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf and several of the people that are involved in the Oakland offer and the Las Vegas deal.
Zennie likes to talk (so do I) but I found a readers digest version of him showing the actual numbers of the deal. I disagree with him at times but I like Zennie and I ask that you please check out this video and his other videos on Youtube. Here is a quick video with the in depth numbers of this deal.
Below is Zennie’s comparison of the Las Vegas deal v.s. the Oakland deal.
Lastly here is Clark County Commission chairman Steve Sisolak who is a huge backer of the Las Vegas stadium. He has been very outspoken at the lack of disclosure by the Raiders & the Stadium Board in regards to the deal. Even he is questioning the deal saying the numbers don’t add up. Remember the Raiders saying Adelson’s money was in the bag? Then remember them saying Goldman Sachs was a for sure? Remember the media saying these things were a done deal? Now Davis says Bank of America’s funding is for sure but there is nothing on paper, no lease, and B of A hasn’t confirmed anything. They may have made a deal but it’s hard to trust Mark Davis word. It reminds me of Carson when the media said the vote had been finalized for the Raiders to move. Facebook groups all spoke about it. I said wait; 2 reliable sources. Ooops. The stories were false and the Raiders did not go to Carson.
Losers in the Las Vegas Stadium Deal:
Loser #1, Mark Davis:
Some of you are saying, “did Jax lose his mind?” Read the above numbers. Doesn’t Mark have any friends in finance? Can’t anyone tell him that his arrogance and inability to admit a mistake may cost him big time? If he put 10% of the effort into Oakland that he has into Carson, San Antonio & Las Vegas, there would already be a stadium deal done. Is he trying to one up his dad and prove himself? The whole situation is bizarre but he is not loyal to Oakland in any way and I’ve been saying that for a long, long time. He doesn’t want to be in Oakland, end of story.
Loser #2; Las Vegas & Nevada:
Nevada is the best at being last. The state is last in education; near last in many health statistics, and near last in many air pollution rankings. I’ve read where they desperately need better public transportation, inner city spending, and funds spent for the infrastructure of the state including Las Vegas.
What does the legislature do? Sheldon Adelson hired 12 lobbyists to bribe; I mean encourage; politicians to vote for the $750 million stadium plan even though Nevada is a hot mess. See why I want to outlaw lobbyists in all forms of government?
Are we that naive to not realize that there now will be less money for other more important things like education and infrastructure? And what about cuts? Some of you think I’m nuts but I see possible cuts as well. Time will tell.
After being confronted with his huge donations to the Donald Trump campaign by Forbes magazine, Adelson said, “I don’t believe in the ultra rich using their power to dictate what happens in politics, but until they change the rules, I will”.
The City of Oakland is still paying for the Raiders move back 22 years later. St. Louis says they still owe $100-128 million to pay for the Rams stadium even though the Rams are not in the same time zone. Can you imagine the mess Nevada is going to be in? Study after study shows tax payers paying for stadiums get one thing; screwed.
Loser #3; Raider fans:
The Raiders ticket prices are near the lower third of the league right now even after 2 years of increases. Now add to that the monstrous PSL prices that some are predicting for Las Vegas and the cost could make them the top 5 most expensive in the NFL. Top that with very high ticket prices and parking. Now add airfare which will run let’s say $150 per person. Now add hotel rooms which will cost a good $200 dollars or more per night with many hotels looking to get at least 2 nights out of you, possibly 3. Food and drink during your stay adds up in this pretentious and overpriced land. How about a husband and wife taking the kids? Fat chance. And you thought Disneyland and Harry Potter World were rip-offs (ok they still are).
Oakland Raider fans will especially lose. The move to Los Angeles ruined the Raiders and they’ve never been the same. Even though the Raiders had a nice core of about 30,000 loyal fans, the crowds at times were embarrassingly low with it’s lack of support. It was so bad that when they came back to Oakland, the players made fun of the LA fans. The violence, bad behavior and flakiness were hard for Oakland fans to watch. A once proud tradition ruined.
Even Raider great Tim Brown on 95.7 The Game said LA was a bad place for an NFL team because when teams don’t do well, fans won’t come. Las Vegas will be worse. Just ask the once darling basketball program at UNLV who’s attendance is now at record lows due to some average years. With the Raiders needing 40-46% of the seats being filled by tourist/travelers, that is a pretty scary thing to rely on. Do you think the Raiders are going to be Super Bowl contenders for 30 years or that the economy will be great for 3 decades? What if a natural disaster or increased crime or another type of tragedy happens? In a loyal place people will still come. Not in Vegas.
(below is a 1995 article describing a Divorce Made in Heaven; the Raiders leaving LA)
In the glory years, many fans worked, played, and partied with some of these Oakland greats. They still talk about the Santa Rosa training camps and now on Facebook you see kids and grand kids of Raider greats happily befriending kids and grand kids of longtime fans. If you say the Raiders can play anywhere and it won’t matter to you then you don’t understand the connection and even though you are a good fan, you don’t have the same investment Oakland does emotionally.
The Raiders may be your team but for Oakland and the east bay, they are family.
What Will Happen At The Vote Next Week:
If this was in the real world, there would be no vote. There is no financing on paper because if there were, there would be a lease agreement. What are they going to vote on? I mean if they do vote yes, now they are giving free reign for the Raiders to do what they want in regards to any crazy deal with his boys from Clark County. And let’s say the Vote is yes; which would be shocking; the deal still isn’t finalized. They still have to get approval from the Stadium board and finalize the financials. If it is approved, there is something going on behind the scenes that isn’t kosher because this is a bad business deal all the way around. One thing trumps EVERYTHING. It doesn’t matter if it’s right or wrong, If the owners want the Raiders in Vegas, they are going to Vegas.
And Please STOP LISTENING TO MAINSTREAM MEDIA! How many more times do they need to be wrong before people stop quoting them and giving them so much credit. I know there is a lot of bad writing out there on the internet. Everyone thinks they are a writer now, and there are many that should not be writing at all. In reality though there are some unique bloggers and writers that are getting a lot done for fans. It’s “fools” like Zennie, myself and countless others who love learning and sharing the facts with others that should get more love. Some work like dogs to give the best information. Why do you think my 3 part series on Ken Stabler was read by thousands? It’s not because I’m some genius. It was because I stayed up for weeks on end sometimes doing all nighters researching and writing because I felt I owed it to Ken & his family along with great college and NFL fans to do something that would inform them and be enjoyable to read. We needed the truth, not insider rumors. Does mainstream media do that anymore? Many don’t. What’s popular isn’t always good, what’s good isn’t always popular.
(My article on the passing of Ken Stabler)
Conspiracy Theory; The Only Way This Vote is Approved:
Some of you say I’m too much into facts; don’t know why that’s a bad thing; but I’m not a fool and I know conspiracies exist. I get that they can be fun to think about. I think the only way this deal succeeds is if the NFL doesn’t care about the numbers and wants Mark Davis out as owner. Why not let this deal go through and let him crash and burn. The way things are now, there is a possibility that he can’t pay all this money back. And if he does default on the loans, will the NFL make him sell out to minority owners who have more money, or just sell out all together? You have a stadium and a team that can’t pay it’s bills. Now the NFL has all of the power over him. Crazier things have happened.
We talked about this a couple of weeks ago; what if the stadium vote goes through and Mark does default on the loan within 3-5 years. Will Oakland again be an option? Holy Toledo!
I’m not dumb; the NFL is going to go to Las Vegas eventually. The NFL, MLB, & NBA showed their real feelings about gambling when they sold their souls to daily fantasy sites even though the feds had to step in because the games were so crooked. Take out gambling and fantasy football and NFL ratings plummet. For the Las Vegas deal, it doesn’t matter about the bickering, hurt feelings or emotions. It’s about the money; it’s business. And if you look at the numbers and at history you realize that this may be the worst proposed deal in the history of U.S. sports with so many losers. Let’s hope that the House of Thrills has one more miracle up it’s sleeve to stop the insanity. If not, remember Jim Jax warned you.