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“After a Blockbuster Trade, Who Will The Raiders, AFC West & Others Pick in The NFL Draft?”

nfl draft rg

In the first blockbuster trade of this year’s NFL Draft, the Los Angeles Rams traded with the Tennessee Titans for the #1 pick.  In exchange for the top pick, the Titans get the Ram’s 1st pick which is #15; 2 second rounder’s (43 & 45) and a third round selection (76th).  The Titans will also get the Ram’s first and third round picks in next year’s draft.  The Titans now have 6 of the first 76 draft picks.  The Rams get Tennessee’s 4th and 6th round picks next year.

This is why I don’t like trading up.

Why This Move Was Made & Will Backfire:

If you look at most of the teams that have traded up for a player, it almost always benefits the team that gave up the top pick. You give so much for a player and then in reality if they don’t pan out the near future of your team is ruined.

As I’ve said many times, you have to have patience.  When most of the Oakland Raider fans wanted Reggie McKenzie’s head the first 2 years he worked, I said that this was a 4 to 5 year plan.  Many fans; and for years Al Davis; over estimated how good this team was when it lacked talent.  McKenzie cleaned house and built a team on solid drafts and a good signing here and there.

The Rams are making the mistake a lot of teams do.  It’s the same mistake Minnesota made in 2013 when they traded up and used New England’s first round pick to get WR Cordarrale Patterson.  The Vikings thought they were better than they were and felt they were a player away from being really good.  They gave up 4 picks that turned into 3 starters for the Patriots Super Bowl Team for a good return man that is now 5th on their depth chart at WR.  Even though Sammy Watkins is a good player, the Bills made the same mistake trading picks to move up to get him when they had several holes to fill.

I think this is a bad move by the Rams.  Maybe I’ll be wrong and Carson Wentz or Jarod Goff will be super stars.  Most scouts though think they are projects and their upside isn’t as great as others think.  But in my mind I’m not giving up so many picks unless John Elway is there.  If Wentz or Goff doesn’t pan out, this move will ruin the Rams for at least 2-3 years if not more.  It’s a gutsy move but I think a desperate one for a team that is trying to make a splash after moving.

Mock Drafts Change Like The Wind:

What happens every year is that team’s desires change as time goes on; that’s why so many drop and move up in mock drafts over time.  Athleticism and the NFL combines shock teams.  It’s like they are enamored with athleticism.  It’s kind of like the pretty cheerleader in high school.  You finally get a chance to date her and then over time you realize she is high maintenance, stuck up and boring.  You eventually move on.  That’s what happens with NFL teams and players in the draft before they are selected.  Athleticism is great but football talent is greater.  Get football talent with athleticism and you have a super star. 

Let’s now look at how this trade changes the fortunes of some teams.

Tennessee Titans;

Wow; what a great trade for them.  They have holes to fill and now, with good drafting, they can literally rebuild their team in 2 drafts.  It was a great move for a team that is on the rise.

San Francisco 49ers:

This almost assures that Colin Kaepernick is staying in San Francisco.  With the Rams and Cleveland almost assuredly taking quarterbacks, this trade hurts.  The 49ers really seemed to like Cal Bears QB Jared Goff and it looked like he was going to fall into their laps.  Somewhere in Ann Arbor Michigan there is a middle aged college football coach wearing khakis and a blue hat who is smiling ear to ear.

This trade does one thing; it means the 49ers are almost for sure going to take a DL in the first round.  The Ravens will take Ohio St. DL Joey Bosa or Oregon DL DeForest Buckner with the #6 pick I’m pretty sure, and then the player that is left over will go to SF.

Denver Broncos:

This move is good and bad for Denver.  Colin Kaepernick is almost for sure not leaving San Francisco.  But if you look at the draft it also allows the Broncos to probably be able to pick Memphis QB Paxton Lynch at #15.  I’m not a huge fan of Lynch’s but some really like him.  There are rumors of trades with Buffalo for Tyrod Taylor but he’s limited as a QB in my opinion.

Look for Nick Foles (gulp); to possibly be wearing Orange next year in Denver.  If they don’t plan on drafting Lynch then it’s almost for sure.  The QB position has never been worse in the NFL.  Look for Denver’s defense to again have to carry the load for this team.

San Diego Chargers:

The Chargers catch a huge break.  Or did they?  Most see monster LT Laremy Tunsil out of Mississippi now falling into their laps greatly helping out their offensive line.  In most drafts some of the safest picks are OL and this is a great get for them.  The Jags and the Cowboys are in front of them and no way are they taking a left tackle.   To gain a great pick without doing anything is not bad.

The problem is the Chargers already have two pretty good starting Tackles in Joe Barksdale & King Dunlap.  They also signed Chris Hairston for depth.  Many feel the Chargers need a center big time but no center warrants that high of a pick.  I see the Chargers going defense either with CB Jalen Ramsey, DL Joey Bosa or DL DeForest Buckner.  While most online have Tunsil moving to SD, I see them going defense.

Kansas City Chiefs:

This probably won’t affect the Chiefs much.  There are a lot of edge rushers in this draft and that’s something that they need.  Tamba Hali is going to be 33 and Justin Houston’s injuries are a worry.  I see them getting a solid player in this year’s DL heavy ensemble.  Kevin Dodd?

NFL-Draft-compensatory-11-19-15

Oakland Raiders:

Yes Raider Fans; let’s look at what this does to your Raiders.

I said it last year that the 2016 NFL draft is going to be a crap shoot and extremely exciting; maybe the most fun ever watching a draft.  No one really knows what teams are going to do and what their evaluations of players are.

As I wrote in my article yesterday, I think right now the Raiders will take Reggie Ragland, MLB out of Alabama for their first pick.  He is by far the best MLB in the draft but it’s slim pickings out there for inside linebackers.  Some think there isnt’ even a second round MLB that warrants to be picked there.  It’s a safe pick.

https://jimjax4.wordpress.com/2016/04/13/who-will-now-be-the-oakland-raiders-1-draft-pick-after-their-latest-signing/

Three guys that are greatly climbing up the ladder that I spoke about a while back are Clemson DL Shaq Lawson, Michigan St. OL Jack Conklin, and OLB Leonard Floyd @ Georgia.

I wrote about these guys before and most ripped on me having them so high but now many mock drafts have these guys climbing big time.  I have no idea why Kevin Dodd is ahead of Lawson in some peoples’ minds.  Lawson was double teamed most of last year and Dodd was helped by that.  Dodd also had only one good year at Clemson.  I take Lawson all day.  There were some games that Lawson played where he was obviously the best football player on the field.

Jack Conklin is a mean physical lineman.  Good at pass protecting but great in run blocking.  He needs work protecting the QB but I think he can be solid for a long time.  Some of the major writers have him going to the Raiders and I think that’s kind of silly with their recent signings.

Sports Illustrated is obsessed with giving the Raiders another wide receiver in the first round but I think there is no way that happens.

The guy that I like a lot is Leonard Floyd.  He’s a machine out there who makes plays.  The problem with Floyd is he looks like Lawrence Taylor one game and then Rip Taylor the next.  He needs maturity and focus.

I admit; Georgia was a dysfunctional wild-west show at times but if you give this guy discipline and he matures, wow.  If the Raiders picked him I would not be upset.  You can still try to fill in the MLB position later in the draft or with cap casualties that always are cut during training camp, because this guy just jumps off of the page.  You know how I love pass rushers and seeing him blitzing behind Mack?  Worse things could happen.

I love Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander too.  I think he’s the best DB in this draft.  Teams were so intimidated with his skills that they just stopped throwing at him.  He gave up 11 passes all year last year and no touchdowns.  He has a toughness and swagger that reminds me of George Atkinson.  He’s very strong and physical.  Scouts don’t like that he’s a legit 5’ 10” but I still like him a lot.  If he’s chosen I think it’s great.

If you have Alexander now you have David Amerson, Sean Smith and Alexander as your top 3 cornerbacks, and Reggie Nelson, Nate Allen and TJ Carrie as your safeties.  Not exactly the Soul Patrol but it is pretty good.

Guys Falling For The Raiders Pick:

The two guys that are falling are Notre Dame OL Ronnie Stanley and Alabama DL AShawn Robinson.  There are worries about Stanley’s passion for football and his work ethic.  He has not shown much strength at times as well during pre-draft workouts.  AShawn Robinson works hard and is a really good player but some say he’s not totally into football as a long term thing.  Early retirements are occurring more and more in the NFL and it’s a risk that worries teams.

Ohio St. OL Taylor Decker; (who I originally had Conklin ahead of) was considered a for sure top 15 pick but now he’s not even in the first round in some people’s eyes.

Ohio St. CB Eli Apple is raw and is also dropping on some boards.  I am not a huge fan of his.  I like Alexander a lot better.  Again athleticism and the cookie cutter size for each position is popular in the NFL but I want football players.

Many people were also trying to promote Ohio St. OLB Darron Lee but I think that is a bad #1 pick.  If you are going to get an MLB later in the draft I’d rather pick Floyd over Lee.  Lee’s an athlete playing football.  He has literally only played LB for 2 years of his life and he has a lot to learn.  He’s also a smallish LB and not a real physically strong one at that.

I see two people on my social media timeline that are promoting Ole Miss DL Robert Nkemdiche about 5-10 times a day.  In reality he only has 7 sacks in 3 years, and in his last 7 games last year he had only 2 tackles a game.  You tube videos and reading experts opinions is great, but if you really want to know how good players are you have to watch them play.

I pass big time on Robert and I see in some mock drafts he’s not even in the first round anymore.  ESPN’s Todd McShay even got off his bandwagon and dropped him out of the first round.  (Finally!)  Remember when I warned you about Jets Vernon Gholston in 2008 and Jadeveon Clowney being busts and some of you didn’t listen?  Listen to Brother Jim.

I can’t see Ohio St. RB Ezekiel Elliot passing by the Eagles, Bears or the Giants without being chosen.

There you have it; so get the food ready; call in sick to work; the kids are at school; open up a cold one or a glass of wine and take the day to enjoy the NFL Draft.  We’ve had a draft party for 16 years and it’s something I look forward to every year.

 

 

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“Oakland Raiders and NFL Revenues: The Staggering Truth”

davis kroenke spanos

Last week we first looked at possible stadium venues in Oakland that were realistically being looked at.

https://jimjax4.wordpress.com/2016/01/25/raiders-stadium-sites-update-video-how-to-morph-levis-a-future-nfl-stadium/

We also looked at realistic ways to pay for these stadiums.   The outpouring of positive comments and support for these ideas was amazing with thousands seeing that this could actually be done in a responsible manner. I really appreciate my smart readers.

https://jimjax4.wordpress.com/2016/01/26/how-to-finance-a-new-oakland-raiders-stadium/

Raider Fans Awaken:

First off, Mark Davis is the owner of the Raiders and that isn’t changing. He’s not going to sell and can’t be forced to sell unless he does something illegal. No petition will change that.

Let’s face it; social media has changed everything. Many people refuse to look at actions or facts exchanging them for biased opinions and conjecture. I guess I’m not smart enough to do that because I just go by what I see.   And what I see shocks me.

First off I would love to have a beer and a burger with Mark Davis.   He has that dorky fun type of thing going on. He doesn’t seem like a bad guy.   The reality of the matter though is that as an owner, he’s in way over his head. How many of you in your first 6 decades of life never held a job. Now you own a billion dollar business.

His actions have shown a lot about the Raiders situation. It’s almost as if the City of Oakland is like a guy that has this girlfriend. She’s not hot; been beaten up by life a bit; is kind and loyal as all get out but he now sees there are physically hotter women out there. He spends time and money on Inglewood and San Antonio (Raiders gave 50k to help spend for a city wide questionnaire in 2014 on how much their fans would want the Raiders) but all the while he tells his girlfriend Oakland that he’s not cheating and really wants her. He explains that he loves her and he’s not even looking for better options; he’s just using these as leverage to make sure the City of Oakland is serious in making a commitment. Everyone who believes that is as naive as an 18 year old girl at her first fraternity party.

Most Raider fans are angry and they are getting an education in NFL 101. I love football but that doesn’t mean I love how the NFL treats people. Look at how the NFL treats the refs; they said they can’t afford them to be full time even though bad calls are almost the norm now. The cheerleaders have to sue the NFL just to get minimum wage.   Retired players are treated like old race horses that are no longer needed. And fans are money signs where emotions and loyalty mean little.

Yet some fans are sensitive about their love of football and they will deny facts and defend every move the NFL makes until their dying day even though the NFL doesn’t care about anyone else but their profits.   Reminds me of some that blindly defend political parties. You can love a sport but still be honest about it.

Mark Davis acts like Oakland isn’t even on his radar at times.   You hope that he wakes up and puts the same effort into Oakland that he has into other cities.

How Do NFL Teams Make Money?:

The NFL is now the richest professional league in the world.   The NFL has 3 types of revenue.   National Revenue or Revenue Sharing; which has television revenue, national ad revenue and general ticket sales along with other miscellaneous items. This adds up to about 61% of NFL teams revenues.

The second form of revenue; which is NOT shared by the teams; is Territorial Revenue. This is money made anywhere near the radius of the teams home city. It could be in the form of in person or online merchandise sales, local television, radio and tv ad revenues, naming rights to the stadium and other things. This is also a large chunk of the teams revenue. This includes PSL’s.  Below is a list of the PSL revenues. Dont’ kill the messenger.

http://www.mprnews.org/story/2012/11/15/sports/nfl-personal-seat-licenses-compared

The third which is also not shared; and a far third at that; is ticket revenue. Why do you think teams are so obsessed with getting new stadiums? Well this is why. Teams share general ticket sales but KEEP all revenues made by luxury suites, club seat ticket sales, parking and any type of luxury boxes. While fans gave a salute for New England Patriot owner Robert Kraft for not charging a PSL (personal seat licenses) to the fans on his stadium, they forgot to add that he tore down 1500 end zone seats (which is revenue that is shared among NFL teams) and put in a huge luxury/club suite area. He pockets millions without sharing.

I went on the Dallas Cowboys web site and asked for suite information.   I counted 116 luxury suites alone in Dallas’ AT&T stadium and that doesn’t count club seats. Some of these suites are $30,000.00 per game and ALL of this money is NON revenue sharing and goes straight into Jerry Jones pocket.

Let’s also not forgot PSL’s. It’s literally free money. It’s like what Costco does and teams make so much money off of it you can’t count it.

Once PSL’s are paid for it’s predicted that the 49ers will make between $310-400 million just on PSL’s. The most expensive PSL in Dallas will cost you $150,000.00 PER TICKET and they expect between $625-675 million in PSL revenue once they are paid for.

Oakland Raider Revenue:

The NFL has always been extremely secretive about their profits.   They’ve lied a lot about them in the past before the internet. The number for the Raiders or any team is really a guess. Forbes gives the best estimate. As many have stated, the Raiders are worth $1.4 billion dollars and that the Davis’ family is worth $500 million. Again, San Diego and Oakland do not have businesses so they are considered the poor teams in the NFL. While most of the owners are worth billions, the Davis’ and Spanos’ families only have their NFL teams. Now dry your eyes; somehow these guys will make it financially.

Oakland Raiders Revenue History (2)
Oakland Raiders Revenue History

Last year Forbes stated that the Raiders made $285 million dollars gross. They made $40 million in ticket sales and paid out $158 million in player salaries. Their operating costs were the lowest in the NFL but again, the Raiders would not disclose the number. In contrast the Dallas Cowboys made a staggering $680 million. The operating costs were #1 as well but no one knows the exact number. The Cowboys are worth 4 billion dollars and are considered the #2 most valuable sports franchise in the world only behind Spain’s soccer empire, Real Madrid.

I read 5 financial online publications and 7 sports publications and got 12 different financial numbers and ideas on NFL revenues. On average most believe the profits for the lower teams like the Raiders are between $25-40 million net profit per year and that doesn’t include the appreciation of the teams which is in the millions. It is believed that this is the first year in NFL history that they made over $14 billion dollars in one year.

Roger Goodell has stated that his goal is for the NFL to make 25 in 25; $25 BILLION per year by the year 2025. They still dream of expanding to London in the next two decades.  The NFL would be considered the 140th richest COUNTRY in the world right now. They could finance several trips to space and buy several countries. That’s scary power.

Green Bay Packers; The Key To Knowing the Profit:

Remember that before the internet, the NFL lied so much about revenues that it was a running joke in the financial community.  NFL teams still don’t have to disclose financials but the Green Bay Packers are owned by the public so they are the only team that actually has to state their revenues but again, that’s shared revenues only. If you add up their share with the rest of the league, the NFL made $7.2 Billion in money that was shared by the teams. Again, this doesn’t include territorial money.

In the past decade or so the Packers have spent $320 million in upgrades to their stadium and surrounding area. They have built stores to sell Packer gear online and in house and have made a bundle. They also have renovated the stadium and they are building a “Titletown” area which will have shops and other ways to show off the tradition of Green Bay and to give a museum and fan experience to their faithful. They now are in the process of also upgrading their club and luxury suites. Green Bay is a classic Midwest team and is obsessed with giving their fans the utmost they can while turning a huge profit.

In the past 3 years, the Packers revenue has gone up from $300 million to $375 million. Their net profit last year was $39.4 million. Even with putting over $300 million into renovations and upgrades, the Packers have said financially they’ve never been stronger.

Final Thoughts:

The extreme greed of the NFL is unsurpassed and isn’t going to change.   Billionaires want one thing; more billions. Anyone thinking differently has never owned a business. I worked for a fortune 500 company that was the biggest money making medical company in the U.S. To them though it still wasn’t enough. They were caught in a insurance scandal and my CEO was arrested by the Department of Justice and it was reported on national television.

What does this all mean? It means that owners are not loyal to cities or to fans; they are loyal to what will make them money. I’m glad that fans are getting it. You can still love your teams and cheer for players but also realize this isn’t family; its business. In my opinion, if Mark Davis wanted to they could figure out a stadium in Oakland. Apple is making over $200 billion a year and this is chump change to many tech companies.   Just like the 49ers, there isn’t a door I would not knock on.  I hope he learned from the mistakes of his father Al Davis. You can only go back home so many times before no one is there waiting for you at the door.