In the first blockbuster trade of this year’s NFL Draft, the Los Angeles Rams traded with the Tennessee Titans for the #1 pick. In exchange for the top pick, the Titans get the Ram’s 1st pick which is #15; 2 second rounder’s (43 & 45) and a third round selection (76th). The Titans will also get the Ram’s first and third round picks in next year’s draft. The Titans now have 6 of the first 76 draft picks. The Rams get Tennessee’s 4th and 6th round picks next year.
This is why I don’t like trading up.
Why This Move Was Made & Will Backfire:
If you look at most of the teams that have traded up for a player, it almost always benefits the team that gave up the top pick. You give so much for a player and then in reality if they don’t pan out the near future of your team is ruined.
As I’ve said many times, you have to have patience. When most of the Oakland Raider fans wanted Reggie McKenzie’s head the first 2 years he worked, I said that this was a 4 to 5 year plan. Many fans; and for years Al Davis; over estimated how good this team was when it lacked talent. McKenzie cleaned house and built a team on solid drafts and a good signing here and there.
The Rams are making the mistake a lot of teams do. It’s the same mistake Minnesota made in 2013 when they traded up and used New England’s first round pick to get WR Cordarrale Patterson. The Vikings thought they were better than they were and felt they were a player away from being really good. They gave up 4 picks that turned into 3 starters for the Patriots Super Bowl Team for a good return man that is now 5th on their depth chart at WR. Even though Sammy Watkins is a good player, the Bills made the same mistake trading picks to move up to get him when they had several holes to fill.
I think this is a bad move by the Rams. Maybe I’ll be wrong and Carson Wentz or Jarod Goff will be super stars. Most scouts though think they are projects and their upside isn’t as great as others think. But in my mind I’m not giving up so many picks unless John Elway is there. If Wentz or Goff doesn’t pan out, this move will ruin the Rams for at least 2-3 years if not more. It’s a gutsy move but I think a desperate one for a team that is trying to make a splash after moving.
Mock Drafts Change Like The Wind:
What happens every year is that team’s desires change as time goes on; that’s why so many drop and move up in mock drafts over time. Athleticism and the NFL combines shock teams. It’s like they are enamored with athleticism. It’s kind of like the pretty cheerleader in high school. You finally get a chance to date her and then over time you realize she is high maintenance, stuck up and boring. You eventually move on. That’s what happens with NFL teams and players in the draft before they are selected. Athleticism is great but football talent is greater. Get football talent with athleticism and you have a super star.
Let’s now look at how this trade changes the fortunes of some teams.
Wow; what a great trade for them. They have holes to fill and now, with good drafting, they can literally rebuild their team in 2 drafts. It was a great move for a team that is on the rise.
San Francisco 49ers:
This almost assures that Colin Kaepernick is staying in San Francisco. With the Rams and Cleveland almost assuredly taking quarterbacks, this trade hurts. The 49ers really seemed to like Cal Bears QB Jared Goff and it looked like he was going to fall into their laps. Somewhere in Ann Arbor Michigan there is a middle aged college football coach wearing khakis and a blue hat who is smiling ear to ear.
This trade does one thing; it means the 49ers are almost for sure going to take a DL in the first round. The Ravens will take Ohio St. DL Joey Bosa or Oregon DL DeForest Buckner with the #6 pick I’m pretty sure, and then the player that is left over will go to SF.
This move is good and bad for Denver. Colin Kaepernick is almost for sure not leaving San Francisco. But if you look at the draft it also allows the Broncos to probably be able to pick Memphis QB Paxton Lynch at #15. I’m not a huge fan of Lynch’s but some really like him. There are rumors of trades with Buffalo for Tyrod Taylor but he’s limited as a QB in my opinion.
Look for Nick Foles (gulp); to possibly be wearing Orange next year in Denver. If they don’t plan on drafting Lynch then it’s almost for sure. The QB position has never been worse in the NFL. Look for Denver’s defense to again have to carry the load for this team.
San Diego Chargers:
The Chargers catch a huge break. Or did they? Most see monster LT Laremy Tunsil out of Mississippi now falling into their laps greatly helping out their offensive line. In most drafts some of the safest picks are OL and this is a great get for them. The Jags and the Cowboys are in front of them and no way are they taking a left tackle. To gain a great pick without doing anything is not bad.
The problem is the Chargers already have two pretty good starting Tackles in Joe Barksdale & King Dunlap. They also signed Chris Hairston for depth. Many feel the Chargers need a center big time but no center warrants that high of a pick. I see the Chargers going defense either with CB Jalen Ramsey, DL Joey Bosa or DL DeForest Buckner. While most online have Tunsil moving to SD, I see them going defense.
Kansas City Chiefs:
This probably won’t affect the Chiefs much. There are a lot of edge rushers in this draft and that’s something that they need. Tamba Hali is going to be 33 and Justin Houston’s injuries are a worry. I see them getting a solid player in this year’s DL heavy ensemble. Kevin Dodd?
Yes Raider Fans; let’s look at what this does to your Raiders.
I said it last year that the 2016 NFL draft is going to be a crap shoot and extremely exciting; maybe the most fun ever watching a draft. No one really knows what teams are going to do and what their evaluations of players are.
As I wrote in my article yesterday, I think right now the Raiders will take Reggie Ragland, MLB out of Alabama for their first pick. He is by far the best MLB in the draft but it’s slim pickings out there for inside linebackers. Some think there isnt’ even a second round MLB that warrants to be picked there. It’s a safe pick.
Three guys that are greatly climbing up the ladder that I spoke about a while back are Clemson DL Shaq Lawson, Michigan St. OL Jack Conklin, and OLB Leonard Floyd @ Georgia.
I wrote about these guys before and most ripped on me having them so high but now many mock drafts have these guys climbing big time. I have no idea why Kevin Dodd is ahead of Lawson in some peoples’ minds. Lawson was double teamed most of last year and Dodd was helped by that. Dodd also had only one good year at Clemson. I take Lawson all day. There were some games that Lawson played where he was obviously the best football player on the field.
Jack Conklin is a mean physical lineman. Good at pass protecting but great in run blocking. He needs work protecting the QB but I think he can be solid for a long time. Some of the major writers have him going to the Raiders and I think that’s kind of silly with their recent signings.
Sports Illustrated is obsessed with giving the Raiders another wide receiver in the first round but I think there is no way that happens.
The guy that I like a lot is Leonard Floyd. He’s a machine out there who makes plays. The problem with Floyd is he looks like Lawrence Taylor one game and then Rip Taylor the next. He needs maturity and focus.
I admit; Georgia was a dysfunctional wild-west show at times but if you give this guy discipline and he matures, wow. If the Raiders picked him I would not be upset. You can still try to fill in the MLB position later in the draft or with cap casualties that always are cut during training camp, because this guy just jumps off of the page. You know how I love pass rushers and seeing him blitzing behind Mack? Worse things could happen.
I love Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander too. I think he’s the best DB in this draft. Teams were so intimidated with his skills that they just stopped throwing at him. He gave up 11 passes all year last year and no touchdowns. He has a toughness and swagger that reminds me of George Atkinson. He’s very strong and physical. Scouts don’t like that he’s a legit 5’ 10” but I still like him a lot. If he’s chosen I think it’s great.
If you have Alexander now you have David Amerson, Sean Smith and Alexander as your top 3 cornerbacks, and Reggie Nelson, Nate Allen and TJ Carrie as your safeties. Not exactly the Soul Patrol but it is pretty good.
Guys Falling For The Raiders Pick:
The two guys that are falling are Notre Dame OL Ronnie Stanley and Alabama DL AShawn Robinson. There are worries about Stanley’s passion for football and his work ethic. He has not shown much strength at times as well during pre-draft workouts. AShawn Robinson works hard and is a really good player but some say he’s not totally into football as a long term thing. Early retirements are occurring more and more in the NFL and it’s a risk that worries teams.
Ohio St. OL Taylor Decker; (who I originally had Conklin ahead of) was considered a for sure top 15 pick but now he’s not even in the first round in some people’s eyes.
Ohio St. CB Eli Apple is raw and is also dropping on some boards. I am not a huge fan of his. I like Alexander a lot better. Again athleticism and the cookie cutter size for each position is popular in the NFL but I want football players.
Many people were also trying to promote Ohio St. OLB Darron Lee but I think that is a bad #1 pick. If you are going to get an MLB later in the draft I’d rather pick Floyd over Lee. Lee’s an athlete playing football. He has literally only played LB for 2 years of his life and he has a lot to learn. He’s also a smallish LB and not a real physically strong one at that.
I see two people on my social media timeline that are promoting Ole Miss DL Robert Nkemdiche about 5-10 times a day. In reality he only has 7 sacks in 3 years, and in his last 7 games last year he had only 2 tackles a game. You tube videos and reading experts opinions is great, but if you really want to know how good players are you have to watch them play.
I pass big time on Robert and I see in some mock drafts he’s not even in the first round anymore. ESPN’s Todd McShay even got off his bandwagon and dropped him out of the first round. (Finally!) Remember when I warned you about Jets Vernon Gholston in 2008 and Jadeveon Clowney being busts and some of you didn’t listen? Listen to Brother Jim.
I can’t see Ohio St. RB Ezekiel Elliot passing by the Eagles, Bears or the Giants without being chosen.
There you have it; so get the food ready; call in sick to work; the kids are at school; open up a cold one or a glass of wine and take the day to enjoy the NFL Draft. We’ve had a draft party for 16 years and it’s something I look forward to every year.