Tag Archives: Vita Vea

“Some Raider Fans Are Happy & Some Mad; The Good & Bad of Drafting Kolton Miller on Another Crazy Draft Day in Oakland”

 

kolton miller

Never a dull moment.

In true Oakland Raiders draft day fashion, they had people scratching their heads, mouths agape, while some clapped their hands with hope. In one hour they managed to tick off 75% of the fan base, and had me laughing my head off with the Twitter rants of upset Raider fans.  Even though 95% of fans had no clue who Kolton Miller was before yesterday, there was much battling online about the choice.  Welcome to the 2018 NFL Oakland Raiders Draft kids.

ESPN Study Shows ALL NFL Teams Struggle With the NFL Draft:

Since 2000 at our draft party, I’ve been flat out documenting my drafts. (Last year I drafted Reuben Foster and the Raiders drafted Gareon Conley). This year I drafted Vita Vea and the Raiders drafted Karlton Miller.

When fans and writers were telling me that all Jamarcus Russell, Darius Heyward-Bey, and Fabian Washington needed was time, I was choosing Calvin Johnson, Michael Crabtree and Aaron Rodgers. I’ve tried to get other fans and writers to document their drafts with me. Still I have NO takers, mainly because drafting is hard and most don’t want their picks to be remembered.  As I tell all of my followers, if I’m not right most of the time, don’t follow me. It’s easy to be a Monday morning QB and question bad drafts of the past when in reality many backed the choices.

ESPN finally proved what I’ve been saying for years. With all of the nonsense at the NFL combines and the stupid questions that teams ask, many are missing on their picks.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23039883/history-tells-us-nfl-terrible-evaluating-quarterbacks-means-2018-draft-prospects

The NFL especially sucks when drafting Quarterbacks. I didn’t really love any of the picks this year and Josh Allen? If you are tall and have a big arm, you are anointed a QB prospect to most NFL scouts. And most NFL scouts have been proven to be WRONG when it comes to the NFL draft.   DOCUMENTED.  FACTS.

So when fans and online writers tell me that everyone should just bow down to the “experts” because they know more and are right much more often, well they are WRONG. I’m not bragging but I’ve been out-drafting the Raiders for years and if some amateur like me (and others) can outdraft an NFL team that spends millions on it, then there is something wrong with the process.

Someone once said if you look at a pretty women day after day for months, eventually you will find flaws and soon she’s not that pretty. That’s what the NFL does with the NFL combines and other nonsense. To throw out years of game films for a few days of drills in gym shorts in an air conditioned arena or in nice sunny weather, is insanity. That’s why John Madden once said on CBS radio, “I watch what they do on the field.   Not in gym shorts doing drills”.

Ok enough talking Jax, what happened yesterday and was it a good thing?

Why UCLA OT Kolton Miller Was a Good Pick:

To be fair, the Raiders needed a Tackle either this year or next.  Unfortunately this was one of the worst drafts for Tackles in recent memory. In contrast there are already 4 offensive tackles; and possibly more; that I like for next years draft over miller. Neither Mike McGlinchey out of Notre Dame or Kolton Miller out of UCLA are a sure thing but both have a lot of potential.   I read over about 50 evaluations about Miller from scouts and even his biggest fan said he’s a B- type draft pick who could start in the NFL and be average to very good. That’s not exactly Jonathon Ogden type fervor but a very good NFL tackle is worth their weight in gold.

They don’t say it but Oakland knows the key to the engine of their offense is Derek Carr, and the key to Derek Carr is protecting him. He’s straight up a bad QB when he’s rushed and had the worst QB rating of any NFL starter against a pass rush.  Protect him and he’s a very good QB.

The 49ers made a nice pick in the more seasoned Mike McGlinchey out of Notre Dame. With Trent Brown a year away from a huge payday and looking overweight following shoulder surgery, they wanted to make sure they had insurance at a much lesser price.

mike mcglinchey

The Raiders took the second best tackle in Kolton Miller out of UCLA. He’s 6’ 8” and has great athleticism. He had the fastest 40 time of any OL (why that matters I don’t know) and before he wowed people at the NFL combine, he was considered more of a second round pick by most.

Miller and experts have said he wants to improve against smaller, quicker pass rushers and become more polished. He’s not a plug and play guy like McGlinchey, and it will take a year or two of seasoning to see what the Raiders got in him but he has the ability to be a quality linemen. He’s insurance on the OL and that isn’t a bad thing.  If somehow he can overcome the tall man tackle syndrome (struggle getting low against speed rushers) and shore up his technique, the Raiders feel they have a tackle for several years that can shore up the OL.

By trading down the Raiders got 2 extra picks.  They used the #3 pick to trade for Pittsburgh’s WR Martavius Bryant.  I like his talent, but hate his attitude of always thinking he’s never getting enough balls or credit, but think he’ll do great with Oakland. Problem is you trade down to get a coveted #3 pick that is going to be with you for 10 months. Next year he is an unrestricted free agent so he’s pretty much a rent a player. He told the Pittsburgh press, I want a lot of balls and a lot of money. He’s making 1.94 million this year and has been underpaid. He’s talented so he’ll probably get both.  If you thought Michael Crabtree was a pain in the ass, Bryant says, “hold my beer”.  He’s a talent though.

Was drafting Miller and trading down and getting this pick a good thing? Bryant will be good for 2018 but beyond that it won’t help much. Miller is a project but may have to play now.  It wasn’t Bill Walsh or New England Patriots trading down, but it wasn’t bad.  I still think there are many more plug and play tackles for next years draft.

Why This was a Bad Idea:

In the last 21 drafts the Raiders have drafted a defensive front 7 player only 2 times and one of them fell in their lap; Khalil Mack. They’ve drafted 8 DB’s in that time. They have 1 winning season in 15 years and no playoffs wins. NOT a coincidence. The Raiders refusal to use #1 draft picks for defensive front 7 players is killing them. Stop the run and rush the passer.  You do that with DL and LB’s.

Some said the Raiders Super Bowl wins were mainly because of the OL. Well it wasn’t mainly but they played a big role for sure. The defense though only allowed 33 points in 3 Super Bowl wins and great QB’s like Tarkenton, Theismann & Jaworski spent their Super Bowls running for their lives due to the Raiders great defensive front 7’s.

With the new rule changes, it’s near impossible for DB’s to cover for long periods of time. You have to put pressure on the QB. The Eagles, Rams, Saints, Broncos, Jaguars and a few other teams are going out of their way to get as many pass rushers as they can find. With Von Miller, Shane Ray, Shaquil Barrett and now Bradley Chubb, the Broncos have some extreme heat to put on Qb’s if they can stay healthy. The Raiders only have Khalil Mack.

The Raiders defense isn’t good; it’s not even average. Their obsession with using #1 picks for defensive backs and offense and then using later rounds to pick DL’s and LB’s has straight up been an epic fail. Take out the 2014 NFL draft and Reggie McKenzie’s drafts are brutal. The Raiders have one of the best pass rushers in the NFL but still can’t crack the top 20 in sacks. Two years ago they were last in the NFL in QB sacks and last year 24th.

The Raiders obviously are not into the defensive side of the ball like they are on the offensive side.   Vita Vea is a straight up disruptive player that made a big difference in the Washington Huskies defense and he is much more explosive and physical than Ward and Vanderdoes. He dropped to the Raiders but no dice. And if you are obsessed like the Raiders are with DB’s, Derwin James was there to pick to play safety. I’m not super high on him like I was Minkah Fitzpatrick but he would have been a quality pick. Now the Chargers polished off their defensive backfield by choosing him.  Tremaine Edmunds was considered the best LB by many in the draft and he’s going to turn 20 next month.  He was available as well and was taken in the next pick after Miller.

Tom Brady had 2 final drives to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Both drives failed because of the Eagles quality pass rush. The Eagles now got another quality pass rusher in Seattle great Michael Bennett. Did I mention yet that the Raiders have only Khalil Mack?

What Will Happen in Day 2:

The Raiders will do what they’ve been doing for years.   They have all their toys so now they are going to try and get things they really need like DL and LB’s. They will use later round picks to try to keep fixing their defense and their recent history shows it doesn’t work.

Obi Melinfonwu is more athlete than football player and still has a lot to learn. Karl Joseph is good against the run but still struggles covering people. It’s more clear who will start at cornerback, but not clear if any will succeed. The Raiders LB’s struggled last year and they could not put up a consistent pass rush even with Khalil Mack. An aging Navorro Bowman was their best LB and he’s unsigned and it’s unclear whether he will choose dollar signs or stay in his beloved bay area. And the Raiders have been very spoiled with Mack’s health. What if Khalil Mack gets hurt? Did I mention the Raiders only have Khalil Mack to rush the passer?

Jim Jamz:

I get what the Raiders are doing and it’s not the worst idea in the world, but they wanted a tackle no matter what and the defense isn’t good. With the defensive talent out there, I would have chosen for defense in Vea, Edmunds or James and then looked for a Tackle that could start right away in 2019. Already for next year I see 4 tackles for the 2019 draft that I like better than Kolton Miller. If Miller is a year or two away then why not just draft a better tackle next year who can be a plug and play player?

I think what bothered fans yesterday is the pattern. Draft DB or offense in the first round and then try to plug the defensive front 7 holes in the later rounds. That strategy doesn’t work. The defensive front 7 is the key to your defense; especially in today’s NFL; and until the Raiders get that, Super Bowl trophies are not happening.  And with 1 winning season in 15 years and no playoff wins, fans that say give them time and be positive are beginning to be drowned out more and more by the Just Win Baby crowd. You can’t lie about facts.  Time will tell.

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“Who do you Pick? The Oakland Raiders Top 5 Probable Picks in the First Round of Today’s NFL Draft”

inminkah final

It’s here.

The NFL has done a masterful job in getting people addicted to the NFL draft. Some even pay “experts” to tell them who will be drafting who. The funny thing is if an expert can get 6-8 picks in the first round right, then that is really good. About 5 years ago KNBR pointed out after the draft how Mel Kiper Jr.; the present draft guru; got ONE pick right in the first round. What this tells us is that your guess is as good as theirs.

I first got into the draft in the 1980’s. To the ire of my mom, my dad and I would watch hours of the coverage.   She would vacuum under our feet and sigh every once in a while letting us know that Dr. Z’s thoughts on an offensive linemen was not vital to mankind’s existence. “How in the world can you watch hours of grown men talking about who to choose to go on a stupid football team?” Eventually my dad would say,”your mother is mad, let’s get some stuff done”.

My friends and I picked up the torch. In 2000 we started having a draft party. We would take the day off work to the chagrin of our female partners, and drink adult beverages, eat food, and draft for each of our favorite teams. We vowed to keep our draft picks and the following year (and years) we would rip on each other or brag about each of our picks. As a Raider fan, what really was sad is that a bloke like me drafted 100 times better than the Raiders did for almost 2 decades.

ESPN did a great article saying what I’ve been saying for years; NFL teams do not draft very well; especially at Quarterback. If you look at the NFL draft history, no team stands out as a great drafting team and most have had a lot more misses than they would like to admit.

Why The NFL Struggles With the NFL Draft:

It’s really not that hard. I can’t remember who said it, but during one of the drafts, he told a great story.   “If you have a beautiful woman standing in front of you, you are amazed at her perfection. If you look at her day after day then all of a sudden she’s a little too fat in some areas and she’s not as pretty as you thought. If you look hard at something long enough, you will find flaws and imperfections”.

The NFL combines is that over analyzing factor. I never watch or care about it. If a team denies 3 to 4 years of game film because a guy impresses them while wearing gym shorts in an air conditioned arena, then you deserve what you get. I remember half a dozen DB’s (and even a WR) picked by the Raiders alone purely because they had the fastest 40 times at the combines but they ended up being huge busts. Darrius Heyward-Bey was never really that good at Maryland and couldn’t carry Michael Crabtree’s jock but his 40 time wowed Al Davis and the rest is history. Still remember all of the Raider fans telling me to give him time. I hope they still aren’t waiting.

The NFL has also become a cookie cutter league. They have a certain size that they love in players. For QB’s if you are 6’ 3” and over with a big arm, you are anointed a great prospect. I watched Wyoming QB Josh Allen in a lot of games and to be honest I never saw him as a great QB or even a first rounder.

Josh Allen has bust written all over him but he’s big and has a rocket arm.   He’s never been in the top 50 in QB rating and against the best competition he’s faced, he had his worst games. In contrast players like Baker Mayfield and Georgia LB’s Roquan Smith’s best games were against their best competition.

In true NFL manner, someone also has brought up tweets that Allen made when he was 15 and 16 trying to stir it up. Funny how they are brought into the news right before the draft, but no one said this wasn’t a dirty business.

To me the NFL is as ridiculous as it gets with some of their research.   The dumb questions teams and scouts ask at the NFL combines are of legend. This year one possible draft pick was asked if he was gay and another was asked what type of women he liked. Other dumb questions that players have admitted they were asked will astound you. Do you wear boxers or briefs; is your mom pretty; what’s the most popular drug at your school; if you had to kill someone, would you use a knife or a gun?; when did you lose your virginity; what team do you pick in Madden and why?; if I give you a paper clip, what things would you do with it?   And these are the “experts” that some fans like to defend when people question teams choices?

Fans v.s. Teams:

Personally I’ve had some stud drafts over the years. Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson have been great picks for me but I’m honest. I also wanted Matt Leinart so I’ve had my train wrecks too.   While the Raiders picked Gareon Conley last year I chose Reuben Foster. I like my chances on that one too.

This years draft will be classic because there are so many QB’s in it which means there will be busts. For me I’m not in love with any of the QB prospects. Darnold is a turnover machine who takes too many chances; Rosen has to have a lot of time because he struggles against a rush; and Lamar Jackson out of Louisville looks like an athlete playing QB a lot like Terrelle Pryor and even former Texas Longhorn QB Vince Young.

The Raiders will choose……..

Oakland will pick in the #10 spot after losing the coin flip to San Francisco.   What stinks is that the 49ers have many of the needs that Oakland does. San Francisco would love to have another linebacker to go with Reuben Foster and their young and talented DL but they also have huge holes in the secondary just like the Raiders.

As I’ve said before, the rule changes have made passing the ball so much easier and it’s limited the effectiveness of defensive backs. You have to have a pass rush. The Patriots lead the NFL in post season sacks and who would think Tom Brady would be stopped on his last 2 drives in the Super Bowl? The Eagles pass rush stopped those drives. Offense puts butts in the seats but defense wins championships. The Raiders pass rush was poor again last year and that is with Khalil Mack in the fold. They desperately need a DT that can push the pocket back to opening up sack opportunities.   Below are the players that they are almost certain to have on their draft board.

roquan smith final

  1. Roquan Smith, LB Georgia

I don’t think he will last. If he drops down to the 49ers it’s hard to think them passing up on him. Smith can play every down and can start immediately and he and Foster would be some tandem in the 49er recent tradition of linebackers.  He can play every down and he’s legit.

minkah 2

  1. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S Alabama

I’m into pass rush and having a stud defensive front 7 but Minkah is a stud. Some teams say he doesn’t have the ideal size but I like him a lot. If the Raiders do get him then it says they aren’t exactly thrilled with #2 draft pick safety Obi Melifonwu which means another wasted pick. Obi is an amazing athlete but he has little instinct especially in the passing game. I did not like the pick last year. Karl Joseph also struggles at times in pass coverage.   Fitzpatrick is instinctive and can tackle. The Raiders have missed a lot on draft picks, and you can’t keep redrafting and resigning positions due to mistakes and win.

mike mcglinchey

  1. Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame

McGlinchey is the sexy pick of late for draft “guru’s”. He is a polished player who is 6’ 8” and 310 pounds.   Most feel that he needs to hit the weight room a bit but overall he is a great talent who can start right away.   They need defense so I’m not so sure about this pick.   The Raiders defense isn’t that good and they have to upgrade the talent.

vita-vea-washington-660-350

  1. Vita Vea, DT Washington

I love this pick. He can move the pocket and he’s as strong as it gets. He’s a beast in the middle and he can push the pocket back and be a huge problem for offenses to block. Problem is, it shows again wasted picks with Jihad Ward who is a probable bust, and Eddie Vanderdoes who didn’t supply a pass rush up the middle just like he didn’t at UCLA. I personally think because of the picks the past 2 years, Vita might be passed over if he drops this far but it would be a mistake.

derwin james

  1. Derwin James, S Florida St.

He’s got classic Raider pick written all over him and I don’t like it. He’s big at 6’ 3” 215 lb., and he has good speed. He’s more of a safety than a CB. I’m not thrilled with this pick but with the Raiders revolving door of DB busts draft picks and signings they’ve had over the recent years, I still have nightmares of bad first round DB draft choices dancing in my head.  Don’t be surprised if this is their guy.

Jims Jamz:

Barring a trade, these are probably the draft picks the Raiders will choose from. A new rumor yesterday said the Raiders may draft up for stud DE Bradley Chubb out of N.C. State, but wake me up if that happens. (I’m still waiting for the LeVeon Bell to the Raiders and Odell Beckham Jr. to the Patriots rumors to come true). The Raiders have had many chances to sign a stud pass rusher but they didn’t spend the money and I find it hard for them to move up to do this.  Getting Chubb would immediately improve their defense but me winning the lottery would improve my goals of buying cars for everyone.

So there  you have it.  Pour yourself an adult beverage and enjoy the draft. But remember, it’s easy to be right after the fact and complain about others on social media, than it is to be accountable for your picks.  If you have the guts though, start drafting for your favorite team and see how you do versus the experts like we’ve been doing for 19 years. It’s a lot easier being a critic than a GM.